Forecast models have continued to vary run to run and model to model over the last 24 hrs. the overall pattern looks set – nothing very strong and mostly from the behind with S-SE most of the way and possibly SE-ESE for a time.
This morning, there is a front to cross TAS and VIC – that will push up the coast as a S change and pass through Sydney later this afternoon with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The band of rain overnight was with a pre-frontal trough.
A small cell of high pressure will follow tomorrow and S-SE winds will quickly shift back to the NE.
During Monday, a trough will develop off the NSW coast and wind will turn back S-SE, but should not be very strong at all.
A front will then move up the NSW coast later Tuesday followed by a high pressure ridge from high pressure over the Bight.
The S-SE winds with this front and following ridge will move all the way up the NSW coast – passing Sydney late TUE 02 night.
The front looses its identity further north, but the strengthening S-SE winds look to be across all the NSW northern coast by WED 03 afternoon.
The next cell of high pressure will probably develop off the NSW coast during THU 04 and the S-SE winds will ease from the south and turn SE-E-NE.
The new ridge probably won’t reach SE QLD until later FRI 05, when the S-SE wind will ease and turn SE-E.
FORECAST (stepping north with the fleet)
WIND SE/10-15 shifting to SE-E/8-12 during the afternoon; shift back to S/15-20 from the south overnight
WAVES up to 1m wind waves on less than 1m E swell
WEATHER partly cloudy; a shower or 2developing along the coast overnight
WAVES 1-1.5m waves on a 1m E-SE swell
WEATHER mostly cloudy with a few showers at the coast
WIND S-SE/15-20 easing from the south SE/10-15 at night
WAVES 1m waves and 1m SE swell
WEATHER fairly cloudy with a few showers; clearing from the south.
WIND SE/14-18 slowly easing from the south
WAVES 1m waves and up to 1m SE-E swell
WEATHER partly cloudy – mostly dry
Some routeing tomorrow for a fast, slow and in between boat; best grib file I have is a 3 day higher resolution – better for coastal hopping, but still far from perfect to resolve the breeze at the shoreline, particularly at night,