Preliminary Forecast of the Pittwater to Paradise race - Saturday 30 December

SITUATION    

Forecast models have continued to vary run to run and model to model over the last 24 hrs. the overall pattern looks set – nothing very strong and mostly from the behind with S-SE most of the way and possibly SE-ESE for a time. 

This morning, there is a front to cross TAS and VIC – that will push up the coast as a S change and pass through Sydney later this afternoon with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The band of rain overnight was with a pre-frontal trough.

A small cell of high pressure will follow tomorrow and S-SE winds will quickly shift back to the NE.

During Monday, a trough will develop off the NSW coast and wind will turn back S-SE, but should not be very strong at all.

A front will then move up the NSW coast later Tuesday followed by a high pressure ridge from high pressure over the Bight.

The S-SE winds with this front and following ridge will move all the way up the NSW coast – passing Sydney late TUE 02 night.  

The front looses its identity further north, but the strengthening S-SE winds look to be across all the NSW northern coast by WED 03 afternoon. 

The next cell of high pressure will probably develop off the NSW coast during THU 04 and the S-SE winds will ease from the south and turn SE-E-NE. 

The new ridge probably won’t reach SE QLD until later FRI 05, when the S-SE wind will ease and turn SE-E.

FORECAST (stepping north with the fleet)

 

TUE 02

WIND  SE/10-15 shifting to SE-E/8-12 during the afternoon; shift back to S/15-20 from the south overnight

WAVES  up to 1m wind waves on less than 1m E swell

WEATHER  partly cloudy; a shower or 2developing along the coast overnight

 

WED 03

WIND  S-SE/15-20

WAVES  1-1.5m waves on a 1m E-SE swell

WEATHER  mostly cloudy with a few showers at the coast

 

THU 04

WIND  S-SE/15-20 easing from the south SE/10-15 at night

WAVES  1m waves and 1m SE swell

WEATHER  fairly cloudy with a few showers; clearing from the south.

 

FRI 05

WIND  SE/14-18 slowly easing from the south

WAVES 1m waves and up to 1m SE-E swell

WEATHER  partly cloudy – mostly dry

 

ROUTEING

Some routeing tomorrow for a fast, slow and in between boat; best grib file I have is a 3 day higher resolution – better for coastal hopping, but still far from perfect to resolve the breeze at the shoreline, particularly at night,  

 

End

 

 

Pittwater to Southport

 

The Pittwater to Paradise Regatta will be starting on Sydney's Pittwater,  1 hour drive north from Sydney's CBD on January 2, 2019 and run through to 9 January, 2019.

The ocean race offers competitors a strategic challenge as they race between the surfline and the current, past unsurpassed scenic coastlines, prior to arriving in one of Queensland's most popular coastal cities. Once on the Gold Coast boats will enjoy a four day series regatta hosted by the Southport Yacht Club.

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Contacts

 

The Royal Prince Alfred Yacht Club
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T: 02 9998 3700
A: 16 Mitala St, Newport 2106 Australia
W: www.rpayc.com.au

Southport Yacht Club
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T: 02 6652 4390
A: 1 Macarthur Pde, Main Beach, Queensland, 4217 
W: www.southportyachtclub.com.au