Trough of low pressure off the coast on TUE 02 morning with weak S flow; the trough weakens later in the day and the S flow fades with a soft shift from SE to E on parts of the south and central coast. Rather light winds the first night.
A front to push north along the NSW on WED 03, passing Sydney early morning and mid north coast by midday. Assisted by high pressure ridging up along the coast later WED afternoon and night; S-SE wind will build across the entire race track during the afternoon.
S-SE winds look to be strongest with 20-25 kts on THU 04 morning on the NSW mid north coast and far north coast areas.
High pressure will build off the NSW central coast on FRI 05 and as the ridge rotates north along the coast, so the stronger SE wind will be pushed further north snd wind will ease on the NSW coast and SE QLD coast with SE-E/5-10.
FORECAST (stepping north with the fleet)
TUE 02 Start to lower mid north coast
WIND SE/8-12 easing and shifting left to SE-E/5-12 during the afternoon; shift back to S/10-15 and increasing 15-20 from the south overnight
WAVES less than 1m wind waves on less than 1m E swell
WEATHER partly cloudy; a showers developing along the coast overnight
WED 03 Hunter to far north coast
WAVES 1-2m waves on a 1m E-SE swell
WEATHER mostly cloudy with a few showers
THU 04 Coffs to SE QLD
WIND S-SE/16-22 easing in the south SE/12-16 at night
WAVES 1.5-2m waves and 1m SE swell
WEATHER mostly cloudy with a few showers; clearing from the south.
FRI 05 Far north coast NSW and SE QLD
WIND S-SE/15-20 slowly easing from the south
WAVES 1.5m waves and up to 1m SE swell
WEATHER partly cloudy – mostly dry
I have run 4 boats this morning – all pretty much rock hopping with the current down the east coast.
The current is strongest and adverse between Crowdy Head and Tacking Point and north of Yamba.
There are opportunities to get wider in other areas, but with reasonable S-SSE winds getting to the coast, it is generally not necessary.
Running 4 boats with EC wind, WW3 waves and CSIRO snapshot of current – elapsed times are below.
I don’t guarantee that my polars are perfect for the various classes, but times should be indicative.
Hard to see the colours of the track – tomorrow, I will increase the scale of the map for more detail.
TP52 (RED) 1 day 22 hrs
Cookson 40 (BLUE) 2 days 4 hrs
J122 (GREEN) 2 days 10 hrs
B40.7 (BROWN) 2 days 11 hrs