Forecast for the Pittwater to Paradise Yacht Race - Sunday 31 December

SITUATION    Roger Bradham Sunday forecastRoger Bradham Sunday forecast

Trough of low pressure off the coast on TUE 02 morning with weak S flow; the trough weakens later in the day and the S flow fades with a soft shift from SE to E on parts of the south and central coast. Rather light winds the first night.

A front to push north along the NSW on WED 03, passing Sydney early morning and mid north coast by midday. Assisted by high pressure ridging up along the coast later WED afternoon and night; S-SE wind will build across the entire race track during the afternoon.

S-SE winds look to be strongest with 20-25 kts on THU 04 morning on the NSW mid north coast and far north coast areas. 

High pressure will build off the NSW central coast on FRI 05 and as the ridge rotates north along the coast, so the stronger SE wind will be pushed further north snd wind will ease on the NSW coast and SE QLD coast with SE-E/5-10.

FORECAST (stepping north with the fleet)

TUE 02  Start to lower mid north coast

WIND  SE/8-12 easing and shifting left to SE-E/5-12 during the afternoon; shift back to S/10-15 and increasing 15-20 from the south overnight

WAVES  less than 1m wind waves on less than 1m E swell

WEATHER  partly cloudy; a showers developing along the coast overnight


WED 03  Hunter to far north coast

WIND  S-SE/17-22

WAVES  1-2m waves on a 1m E-SE swell

WEATHER  mostly cloudy with a few showers 


THU 04  Coffs to SE QLD

WIND  S-SE/16-22 easing in the south SE/12-16 at night

WAVES  1.5-2m waves and 1m SE swell

WEATHER  mostly cloudy with a few showers; clearing from the south.


FRI 05  Far north coast NSW and SE QLD

WIND  S-SE/15-20 slowly easing from the south

WAVES 1.5m waves and up to 1m SE swell

WEATHER  partly cloudy – mostly dry



I have run 4 boats this morning – all pretty much rock hopping with the current down the east coast. 

The current is strongest and adverse between Crowdy Head and Tacking Point and north of Yamba.

There are opportunities to get wider in other areas, but with reasonable S-SSE winds getting to the coast, it is generally not necessary.

Running 4 boats with EC wind, WW3 waves and CSIRO snapshot of current – elapsed times are below.

I don’t guarantee that my polars are perfect for the various classes, but times should be indicative.

Hard to see the colours of the track – tomorrow, I will increase the scale of the map for more detail.


Elapsed times: 

TP52  (RED)  1 day 22 hrs

Cookson 40 (BLUE)  2 days 4 hrs

J122  (GREEN)  2 days 10 hrs

B40.7 (BROWN)  2 days 11 hrs  





Pittwater to Southport


The Pittwater to Paradise Regatta will be starting on Sydney's Pittwater,  1 hour drive north from Sydney's CBD on January 2, 2019 and run through to 9 January, 2019.

The ocean race offers competitors a strategic challenge as they race between the surfline and the current, past unsurpassed scenic coastlines, prior to arriving in one of Queensland's most popular coastal cities. Once on the Gold Coast boats will enjoy a four day series regatta hosted by the Southport Yacht Club.

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The Royal Prince Alfred Yacht Club
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Southport Yacht Club
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A: 1 Macarthur Pde, Main Beach, Queensland, 4217